bellwether counties epoch times

He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. "If. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Im not happy with either party. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. Vance. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. He isnt so sure about Biden. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. I think all politicians are crooks. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. What happened to our Democratic Party? Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. He didnt vote in 2016 either. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. It will cycle through. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. Theres too much corruption. This includes personalizing content and advertising. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. I am under that impression. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. Its crazy. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Were a service industry-oriented area. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. I dont think you should take that away from me.. We need election reform.. Bremer County, Iowa They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! I believe in a time cycle. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. About The Author. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame.

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