President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. 10. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. 3. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. Twitter Twitter What science tells us about the afterlife. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. 9. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. These counties could play an . Watch Hampton City. 4. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results So, where are the bellwether counties? It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. It almost became religious.". Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Want to dive deeper? Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. There are 391 such counties. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Click here, for more. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. It gets a lot more interesting. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. But that's no longer the case. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Found an error on our site? Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. Joe Biden (631) Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. All Rights Reserved. Their hopes are real. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. TIP: Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Seriously. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Do you know this baby? And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Until this year. 3. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. University of New Hampshire . If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Nobody forgot about politics.". The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Enter Donald Trump. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). First, what are bellwether counties? A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Yes, another Hillsborough! Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. They simply vote on merit. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. Go on, look them up! And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation.
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